A new study by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI) has revealed that the Omani population will hit four million by 2040.
The study, released this week and based on a high-fertility rate, found that the national population would jump by 2.4 million people over the next 25 years.
Currently, Oman’s total population is at 4.1 million, with Omanis representing 2.3m of that amount and 1.8 million expats making up the remainder.
The NCSI’s forecast also included a medium-fertility rate, which projected that the national population would rise to 3.6 million, and a low-fertility rate, which would see an smaller increase of 2.4 million people.
Overall, the number of Omani males would increase by 69 per cent by 2040, while there would be an increase of 72 per cent for females, the NCSI said.
“According to the high-fertility assumption, the percentage of Omani children under 15 years to the total number of the Omani population is expected to reach 30 per cent in 2040 compared to about 25 per cent according to the low fertility assumption,” the NCSI said in the report.
“The percentage of children under five years to the total Omani population is projected to reach 11 per cent according to the high fertility assumption; compared to about 8 per cent according to the low fertility assumption.
“It is also projected that the Omani youth [15 to 29 years] will constitute about 27 per cent of the total Omanis, with about a 3 per cent decrease compared to the same value of the index recorded in the middle of 2015.”
It added that the Omani working-age population – 15 to 64 years – would reach 64 per cent based on the high-fertility assumption, but this would increase to 69 per cent based on the low-fertility projection.
The NCSI also said it expected that Omani females of childbearing age would constitute 45 per cent of the total Omani females in 2040 according to the medium-fertility assumption.
Unsurprisingly, the study found that the biggest projected increase in the Omani population would occur in the governorate of Muscat.
“The largest projected increase in the number of population during the next 25 years will be recorded in Muscat governorate, where the projected increase reaches 322,000 people on the assumption that the policy of decreasing the number of expatriates will continue,” it said.